‘Temporary’ occupation of Ukrainian territory most likely outcome of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Czech president says

The “temporary” occupation of some Ukrainian territories by Russia is the most likely outcome of Moscow’s full-scale invasion, Czech President Petr Pavel said in an interview published on Sept. 23.

Speaking to The New York Times (NYT), Pavel said neither Ukraine nor Russia should expect to achieve outright victory.

“To talk about a defeat of Ukraine or defeat of Russia, it will simply not happen. So the end will be somewhere in between,” he said.

As of late August, Russia was in control of around 27% of Ukrainian territory, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts are partially controlled by Russian troops. Russia claims to have annexed the whole territory of those regions despite not controlling two regional capitals — Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.  Moscow also controls all of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the illegal annexation of four oblasts in September 2022, and in June called for Ukrainian troops to leave these territories as a condition for peace negotiations, a proposal which was rejected by Ukraine.

Pavel said that Ukraine “will have to be realistic” about the prospects of recapturing the Russian-occupied territories.

“The most probable outcome of the war will be that a part of Ukrainian territory will be under Russian occupation, temporarily,” Pavel said, though he added this could last for years.

Ukraine says peace talks should be held on the basis of its 10-step peace formula, which includes a full withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.

Zelensky is also expected to present his “victory plan” to President Joe Biden during his ongoing visit to the U.S. this week.

“There is not and cannot be any alternative to peace, no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that will simply move Russian aggression to another stage,” Zelensky said in his evening address on Sept. 18.

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